Classification：Jiangsu Neusoft
Release Date：2021-03-15 15:49
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In May 2019, the state issued the consumption quotas for each province in 2018, 2019, and 2020.
On February 5, 2021, the National Energy Administration issued the "Letter on Soliciting the Responsibility Weight of Renewable Energy Power Consumption in 2021 and the Proposals for 2022-2030 Expected Targets" (hereinafter referred to as the "quota document", see the attachment for the original text), According to the document:
1）The introduction of a high-proportion quota system provides a guarantee for the demand for non-aqueous renewable energy in future power market transactions and provides a guarantee for the consumption of renewable energy in the future!
2）In the next ten years, 66% of the increase in electricity consumption will come from non-aqueous renewable energy, which is expected to be mainly wind power and photovoltaic!
3）Decompose the national quota target to each province, issue the quota of each province in 2021, and give the expected target of each province's quota from 2022 to 2030. The target is based on the 2021 quota and an annual increase of 1.47%.
4）The total annual new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power is expected to exceed 130GW.
1、Provide a guarantee for the demand for renewable energy and the price of electricity in the electricity market transaction!
In 2020, the national renewable energy and non-aqueous renewable energy power will account for 29.5% and 11.4% of the total electricity consumption, respectively.The quota document correspondingly proposes a ratio of 40% and 25.9% by 2030. It can be seen that there is great pressure to complete the quota for non-aqueous renewable energy.
In the electricity market-oriented transaction, in order to complete the high quota, electricity sales companies have to purchase limitedNon-aqueous renewable energy power generates a huge demand market; when supply and demand are tight, the price will naturally not be very low. Therefore, 25.9% will undoubtedly provide a guarantee for consumption and electricity prices for the relatively weak renewable energy in the future power marketization!
2、66% of the future increase in power generation will come fromNon-aqueous renewable energy
The quota document proposes national renewable energy quotas and non-aqueous renewable energy quota targets for 2021 and 2030, as shown in the table below.
Table 1: Comparison of renewable energy power demand from 2020 to 2030
Explanation: As the national renewable energy quota is 40%, the maximum value is actually over 40% in many provinces, so the actual value may be higher than the expected value.
As can be seen from the above table, according to the Energy Administration's expectations, the increase in electricity consumption will be about 3.5 trillion kWh during the decade from 2020 to 2030. Among them, about 2.0 trillion came fromNon-aqueous renewable energy. As the biomass still needs subsidies, it is expected that it will mainly be the power generation of wind power and photovoltaic projects.
Take the incremental data of renewable energy power generation from 2020 to 2021 as an example,According to public data from the National Energy Administration, the national renewable energy power generation capacity will be 2,214.8 billion kWh in 2020, an increase of approximately 8.4% year-on-year;In the quota document, the renewable energy power generation in 2021 is expected to be 2,296.4 billion kWh.具体每种类型发电量增量如下表所示。
Table 2: Comparison of expected power generation of various renewable energy sources in 2021 and actual power generation in 2020
As can be seen from the above table, the increase in renewable energy power generation from 2020 to 2021 will be 81.6 billion kWh, of which wind power and photovoltaic power will increase by 141.6 billion kWh.
3、The total annual installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaics is expected to exceed 130GW
According to Table 1, from 2020 to 2030, non-aqueous renewable energy will achieve an increase in electricity consumption of about 2.0 trillion kWh. Considering the annual increase of 10 billion kWh for biomass projects, wind power and photovoltaics need to add about 2.0 trillion kWh.
According to the public data of the National Energy Administration, the average utilization hours of wind power nationwide in 2020 is 2097 hours, and the average utilization hours of photovoltaic power is 1160 hours. Based on this, to achieve an increase of 2.0 trillion in electricity consumption, it is necessary to increase the installed capacity as shown in the table below.
Table 3: Expected new installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic under different proportions
It can be seen from the above table that due to the low number of hours of photovoltaic power generation, the expected annual total installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power is 131 to 145 GW under the situation of different installed ratios of wind power and photovoltaic power.
4、 Quotas in each province in 2021
The comparison between the province's renewable energy quota indicators (minimum value, incentive value) and the weight expected to be achieved in 2021 is shown in the following figure. Among them, provinces where the expected value of 2021 is lower than the lowest quota value, and provinces with red dots below the blue dots, will have a need to buy green certificates.
The comparison between the province's non-aqueous renewable energy quota indicators (minimum value, incentive value) and the weight expected to be achieved in 2021 is shown in the following figure. Among them, provinces where the expected value of 2021 is lower than the lowest quota value, and provinces with red dots below the blue dots, have a need to buy green certificates.
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